Thursday, 31 March 2016

How much NBA talent is in the Final Four?

How much NBA talent is in the Final Four?© Robert Hanashiro, USA TODAY How much NBA talent is in the Final Four? While the NCAA Final Four doesn't have quite the same star appeal as did last year's -- the championship game alone produced five first-round draft picks -- there's still quite a bit of intrigue for NBA fans hoping to get a glimpse of some of incoming talent. Most notable, of course, is Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, who has taken the nation by storm in an incredible senior season.
We take a look at the two Final Four contests, with a focus on what to look for in the prospects most likely to be drafted in June.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 10 Syracuse
If Hield has been the star of the tournament, Brice Johnson has filled in admirably in a supporting role.
Johnson is averaging 21 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 3.5 blocked shots per game so far in the tournament, including three straight games with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. It is as strong, and as consistent, as Johnson has looked at any point during his excellent four-year career at North Carolina.
Johnson will have to navigate not only Syracuse's 2-3 zone, but also a pretty good mix of interior defenders, all of whom present different strengths. Depending on who Johnson is going up against, he could either be trying to score against a bruising, physical defender in DaJuan Coleman, a long, rangy athlete in Tyler Roberson, or against Tyler Lydon, a skilled perimeter power forward who makes his impact felt defensively as a weakside shot blocker.
Johnson is far and away the top prospect in the game, but he's not the only prospect on the court. Lydon is probably the one with the most upside, as his combination of perimeter shooting – he shot 40.9% on 115 three-point attempts this year – and weakside help defense are increasingly sought-after in today's NBA. Marcus Paige, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks, DaJuan Coleman, and Michael Gbinije all have solid chances to be drafted sometime in the next few years as well.
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
Hield will be the center of attention, he has had a magnificent tournament run, averaging 29.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game, while shooting an incredible 47.5% from three-point range.
This is an interesting game because it matches strength up against strength. Oklahoma is led by their three perimeter ball handlers in Hield, Jordan Woodard, and Isaiah Cousins, all of whom are shooting at least 42% from three-point range on the season.
Villanova, by contrast, is led by a group of perimeter defenders that have been causing havoc for other teams, a defense which forced Kansas into 16 turnovers and held them to 6-of-22 shooting from three-point range.
Villanova is able to use that press to disrupt a team and take them out of their rhythm offensively as well as any team in the country, and Ryan Arcidiacono, Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins, Jalen Brunson, and Mikal Bridges have the discipline to make it effective. In theory, however, Oklahoma's abundance of ball handlers and perimeter shooters is tailor-made to break a press, and they have the ability to turn that havoc into opportunity, and open looks for their perimeter shooters, which could prove deadly for Villanova.
It will be interesting to see which team is able to force the other to adapt, and whether Villanova's pesky perimeter defenders can do something nobody else has been able to do so far in this tournament: slow down Hield.
One area that could be the force that swings momentum to Villanova's side is Daniel Ochefu. Villanova is a guard-dominated team, much like Oklahoma, and has been for most of Coach Jay Wright's tenure. But Ochefu provides them with an inside scoring presence that gives them offensive diversity few teams are able to match up against, and has helped forge Villanova into one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Whether Khadeem Lattin and Ryan Spangler can hold their own down low could determine who advances to the championship game.
Whereas the North Carolina vs. Syracuse game contains a number of prospects outside of Johnson, Hield really is the star attraction for NBA draft aficionados. Villanova's Josh Hart has a chance to get drafted as a later pick, and Mikal Bridges, a raw but athletically talented freshman for Wright's team, could have some intrigue as he rounds out his game, but it's unlikely he declares for this year's draft.
Players continue to declare for the NBA draft
With the season ending for most collegiate players, many, more than ever, are beginning to declare for the NBA draft.
With the new NCAA withdrawal rules, which pushes the deadline to withdraw from the draft to much later in the draft process and allows players to enter, and withdraw from, the draft multiple times, more players are declaring for the draft than at any time in recent memory, if for no other reason than to get feedback from NBA teams on how they need to improve.
As such, fans looking to get a firm grasp on who will stay in the draft will have to wait until the end of May. Until then, everything is fluid.
Unless, of course, a player hires an agent. At that point, the player forfeits his remaining NCAA eligibility.
A couple of key prospects have already reportedly hired representation. This list includes Ben Simmons and Tim Quarterman from LSU, Stephen Zimmerman from UNLV, Marquese Chriss and Dejounte Murray from Washington, DeAndre Bembry from St Joseph's, and Wayne Selden of Kansas. 

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